Roadmap to Victory

Remember the lesson of 2000: The Electoral College ballots choose the President, not the electorate's votes. The question to be answered is how will ANY Republican pry a Kerry-state away from Hillary in 2008? Christ, if they voted for Kerry, what kind of Republican could possibly entice them?

"Responding to statements by some Democratic rivals that she is not electable because her negative ratings are too high, she pointed to her increasing lead in national polls. "I am winning," she said. "That's a good place to start."

She sketched out a road to victory in the general election if she becomes the Democratic nominee, saying she expected to win every state that Senator John F. Kerry won in 2004 (251), plus Florida (27), Ohio (20), Arkansas (6), and probably Louisiana (9), New Mexico (5), and Nevada (5)."

Electoral Votes 2004 (269 needed to win):
Bush: 286
Kerry: 251

Electoral Votes 2008 (Hillary's est.):
(Rep TBD): 233 to 214
Hillary: 304 to 323

Republicans can lose 17 EC ballots in 2008 from 2004. If the Dems pick up AR/NM/NV, or LA and one of the previous, the Republicans still win. The Republicans CANNOT win if they they keep the previous four and lose either Florida OR Ohio and don't pick up 10 or three ballots respectively.

So, which states do you think Hillary could lose? Your choices are WA, OR, CA, WI, IL, MI, MN, PA, VT, NY, NH, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC.

In addtion, Nebraska and Maine now parcel their electoral votes based on percentage of votes cast. A Republican can expect to lose 2/5 ballots from NE, and gain 1/4 (maybe 2) from Maine.