If a poll falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it mean anything?

Richard Fernandez at the Belmont Club discusses a BBC survey that asked people in eleven countries whether they thought a conflict between the West and Islam was inevitable. Because this is the first time the poll has been surveyed, there is no historical perspective in the change of opinion. We don’t know what they would have said a year ago, or 10 years ago, or 1,000 years ago during the Crusades. So, let’s make stuff up.

According to the poll, currently, 39% of Germans believe that "violent conflict was inevitable", as do 31% of Americans. Indonesia has a high degree of belief that a conflict is coming. Lebanon has a low degree of belief.

Then Richard curiously asks what the number of Americans, New Yorkers say, might have thought about an “inevitable conflict” with Islam six years ago. Good question, as far as it goes, but let’s take it a little farther. Let’s assume the question is really about “inevitable conflict” leading to penultimate destruction instead of about a paltry disagreement between Islam and the West.

Substitute “Russia” for “Islam” and ask the question again. The percentages would have been higher previously than now. In fact, it is now to the point that practically NO ONE thinks any longer that “a conflict between Russia and the West is inevitable.” Sure, there are some dead-ender anti-Communists that won’t let go, or those who think that a conflict is inevitable between any two different entities. You could suppose that you might get the same answer by asking if conflict was inevitable between Teddy Bears and the West.

Let’s ask another question: Is it likely that an asteroid will lead to the inevitable destruction of humanity? Yes, of course, asteroids wiped out the dinosaurs. No, don’t be ridiculous, that only happens once in 200 million years. “Umm, I don’t know,” is the correct answer.

Or, “Will anthropogenic Global Warming destroy the world?” Of course, don’t be stupid, you read the papers don’t you? Besides, Al Gore says so. Hysteria obviously throws much greater weight than a private, reasonable opinion does.

So, let’s suppose one more question, and let’s ask it of Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Taoists, Marxists, Zoroastrians, Muslims, everyone. “Should [insert your religion here] be the world’s one true religion?” And maybe there should be one follow up question. “Should your religion destroy the world to do that?” All it takes is one sect to say, "Yes," and it's 'game on'.

Now that would be a poll we could use! But when the answer is known, the question changes to: “What are YOU going to do about that (or them)?”

What DO you do about people who would destroy the world in the name of their religion? I think he who shoots first, most often, loudest and biggest wins this one.

A penalty of affluence

I had an amusing experience the other night.

Some Stanford friends came in from out of town with their daughter, a high school Junior (I'm not that old, am I?), and brought along a friend of the daughter's for a SoCal college tour. It's been over 30 years since I had to answer that question, so it was a fun, nostalgic trip. It was fun to re-explore that whole time of life. They have different answers than I did.

So I started asking questions. Where have you been? (Many different schools.) What kind of schools are you looking for? (Smaller, 10-20K, liberal arts, not for hard science or engineering.) Stanford? (No.) Why qualities are you looking for in a school? (A good sports reputation.) Academics? (No.) Party school? (No. We're looking for a school with good diversity.)

Diversity? Like Republicans AND tree-huggers, living together under the same roof? No, not exactly. Mom explained to me that daughter wants a school with a higher proportion of black students than was typical, 10-15% or so (statistically it is 6% or less). Not gimongous and flooded with Orientals (Asians, buttwipe). I see. The unspoken reason for the daughter's preference is because her boyfriend is black (she's not). That's fine by me, of course, but I don't know how that fits in with choosing a college, but whatever floats your boat, you know?

So, I played the game a little more. East of the Mississippi, west of the Mississippi? (Shrug.) I pretty much gave up at that point and Mom and Dad and I chatted about schools. I made some suggestions they hadn't thought of. The conversation turned to other subjects. The evening passed and it was good to have a chance to chat with old friends.

A couple days later, it occured to me that what those affluent, suburban kids were doing was completely different than what I did. I figured college is college, Michigan State was right next door and as good a choice as any. I also applied to Michigan and because I was a good swimmer, talked to several other schools trying to snare a scholarship, but didn't. In the end, I applied to Stanford because my High School Swim Coach said I should. Basically, I applied on a dare and got in. There, I said it.

Now, these kids were choosing a school more to live a fantasy. Athletic jocks, personal attention, anything that feeds their affluent lifestyle. I was also struck by the idea that the daughter didn't want to go to a tradionally Black College. I think she wanted as much choice as she could get without having to give up being in the majority.

So, it appears to me that for these girls, picking a college is sort of like practicing for planning their wedding. Let's face it, they're bored. They have too many options and no needs. The Unabomber was right.

They don't need diversity, they need adversity.

I totally missed that part

You know how that hijacker from Mauritania was overcome by the passengers? Passengers thwart hijacking, end of story. Right?

Umm, well, no. It turns out the hijacker opened the cockpit door, walked in, pointed one revolver at the pilot and another revolver at the copilot and said, "Take me to Paris."

According to the papers, his request for asylum had been turned down several times and he wanted to get in this time.

According to the pilot, when asked why he wanted to go to Paris the hijacker replied, "Can’t you see all the bad things they are doing to Muslims?"

See, I totally missed that part of the story when I read about it on the major news media. It must have been my misunderstanding.

See "The most underplayed story in France so far this year"