The Seven Sisters of Oil

Richard Fernandez of The Belmont Club posts on the new Seven Sisters of Oil, where he relays that according to the Financial Times, the original seven have been replaced.

It strikes me that this speaks to the heart of the "This is a War for Oil" anti-war meme. The idea is that the Iraq War is being fought by Bush who has been bought and paid for by American oil interests, as embodied in the 20th Century by The Seven Sisters. The problem with that is there are no longer any American interests in the Seven Sisters. The game has changed. The original Seven Sisters are now consumers, and are not the "rule-makers", but instead are the "rule-takers".

Fernandez point is that 40% of the world's oil was produced by Western countries in the middle of the 20th Century, and that within a few years 90% or the world's oil will be produced by Third World countries. Exporting oil production to these unstable reasons implies inherent risks. What the anti-war argument SHOULD be is that the Iraqi war is about stabilizing unstable parts of the world. Which as I think about it, is probably bad if you're a tree-hugging environmentalist who wants oil production stopped.

So the next time anyone tells you "this war is about oil", you can ask them to explain to you what they mean, and know that ultimately, they only answer they'll be able to give you is 'Haliburton,' a smallish international bit player in the "Oil Wars", or shake their fist in a "curse you Red Baron" while blaming Dubya for destabilizing the Middle East, which is what they really want in the first place…

The Original Seven Sisters of Oil (OLD), now referred to as the "Supermajors" group:

1. ExxonMobil (formerly Esso, formerly Standard Oil of New Jersey)
a. ExxonMobil (formerly Mobil, formerly Standard Oil of New York/Socony)
2. Shell (formerly Royal Dutch Shell Anglo-Dutch)
3. BP (formerly BP Amoco, formerly Amoco, formerly Standard Oil of Indiana, formerly British Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC))
4. Chevron (formerly ChevronTexaco, formerly Chevron, formerly Standard Oil of California/Socal)
a. Chevron/BP/Cumberland Farms (formerly Gulf Oil)
b. Chevron (formerly ChevronTexaco, formerly Texaco)

The 21st Century Seven Sisters of Oil (NEW):

1. Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia)
2. Gazprom (Russia)
3. CNPC (China)
4. NIOC (Iran)
5. PDVSA/Citgo (Venezuela)
6. Petrobas (Brazil)
7. Petronis (Malaysia)

I can't help but notice that there are no U.S. companies in the list. Even Mexico's PEMEX is missing. Oh, and notice how neatly the original Seven have cannibalized each other as their market matured and they consolidated for economic efficiency. Do you think Petrobas will buy Citgo in 20 years or so? Or maybe CNPC might buy Gazprom? Umm, no. They'll stay separate and slowly grind down under dilapidated infrastructures until the governments they feed demand prices so high that they'll go to war instead of cutting benefits. But, then again, that's why this war is about Oil, isn't it?

OPEC
1. Saudi Arabia (Saudi Aramco)
2. Iran (NIOC)
3. Venezuela (PDVSA/Citgo)
4. Algeria
5. Angola
6. Indonesia
7. Iraq
8. Kuwait
9. Libya
10. Nigeria
11. Qatar
12. United Arab Emirates

Not OPEC:
Russia, China, Brazil, Malaysia

There is now talk that Russia may form a Gasoline consortium (link missing) to control the refining price of gasoline vis-a-vis ethanol.